گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت کشتیرانی درایران-سه ماهه اول2011

On a global level we see risks to all three core-shipping sectors (container and dry and liquid bulk), with overcapacity and a drop in demand continually threatening to push down rates and impinge on shipping lines' profits.

Having posted growth during the downturn of 2009, Bandar Abbas has proven to be a resilient port in the face of adversity and so we are forecasting double-digit growth in 2010 despite the sanctions that have been imposed on it over the last 12 months.

However, our outlook for the medium term is not so optimistic. The effect of the sanctions will be felt in the Iranian economy, and this will surely trickle down into the Islamic republic's shipping sector.

  
2011 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast 1.4% following a projected growth of 11.39% in2010.


2014 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2,835,511 TEU in 2014.

Iranian GDP growth forecast to be 1.2% in 2010/2011.

Sanctions continue to dominate: Sanctions imposed upon Iran continue to dominate the Iranian shipping story. The US has reiterated its commitment to enforcing sanctions against Iranian shipping companies, and various countries, including South Korea and UAE, have significantly cut back their trade with the country, with implications for Iran's ports.

Not wholly isolated: Iran is not without friends, however, and has over the quarter signed a number of agreements with Venezuela providing for cooperation in the fields of oil, natural gas, and shipping. Iran has also begun shipping cement to its neighbour, and erstwhile foe, Iraq.

Favourable throughput despite sanctions: Despite the sanctions imposed upon it, Iran's ports have continued to post growth on the throughput they recorded last year. Additionally, Iran's national oil company, NITC, has also had a good quarter, and has ordered 12 new VLCCs from Chinese shipyards.

The sanctions imposed on Iran provide considerable risk to our forecasts. With the nuclear-energy development programme, which the Iranians insist is not for the development of weapons, elevated to the status of a national cause, it seems unlikely that it will be dropped anytime soon. Equally determined are the US and its allies; as such the uncertainty brought about by the sanctions is likely to continue for some time.

Equally, as Iran is so reliant on the export of its oil to feed its economy, any fluctuation in the price of fossil fuels could provide risk to our projections.