صنعت کشتیرانی در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2016

BMI Industry View

BMI View: The historic deal agreed between Iran and the P5+1 powers in Vienna on July 14 - assuming it passes through parliaments - will see growth return to the Iranian economy and its shipping sector over the coming years. This recovery will not be immediate and there remain significant challenges to growth in the near term. The general trend is that Brent crude will average considerably less than in recent years - we forecast an average of USD59 per barrel in 2015 - meaning that the economic boost from easing sanctions will be limited. Iranian consumers will continue to be under pressure, and a massive ramp up in containerised goods imports is unlikely. However, as real GDP growth in the country picks up, we expect pent-up demand from the growing middle class in the Middle East's largest population to drive growth in imports of containerised consumer goods.

Headline Industry Data

■ 2016 port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to grow by 6.3%, and average growth of 7.3% to 2020.

■ 2020 port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2.4mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - although this is still insufficient to match 2011 volumes.

■ 2016 total real trade is forecast to grow by 1.5%.

Key Industry Trends

IRISL Introduces New Service To Link Iran And Russia In 2015 a subsidiary of IRISL introduced new regular shipping services across the Caspian Sea to connect Iranian ports with Russia and Kazakhstan. The company will carry six sailings a month on the new services.

Soon the company will be launching new services to other parts of the world, as it is likely that sanctions against the firm will be removed in early 2015. According to company chairman Mohammad Saeidi, IRISL has plans to expand the container shipping fleet by 579,000 TEUs, add 2mn DWT worth of dry bulk shipping capacity and 1.6mn DWT of tankers by 2020. This will support the expected resurgence in the Iranian economy and boost volumes at the port of Bandar Abbas.

Talks With Insurance Companies Underway

It was reported in October 2015 that NITC's director of commerce had revealed that the tanker company had initiated talks with European insurers, as a result of easing sanctions against the firm, and against the Iranian oil and gas sector more generally. The loss of insurance was one of the key factors that hampered NITC's activities in the years 2012 to 2015, as there are few insurance markets in the world that do utilise London's reinsurance market in some way.

Key Risks To Outlook

There are serious risks to all our forecasts for Iranian shipping, just as there are to our macroeconomic outlook for the country. Our forecasts are at present predicated on the expectation that the Vienna agreement presages a new period of cooperation with the international community, and a re-admittance into financial markets and a removal of sanctions. This would entail a recovery in the Iranian economy, and a massive pick-up in volumes handled at the country's ports, in addition to freedom to operate for Iranian shipping companies. However, any renewed breakdown in the agreement would see sanctions re-imposed and our forecasts re-evaluated.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت کشتیرانی در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2016