کد خبر: ۳۳۰۵
تاریخ انتشار: ۲۳ مرداد ۱۳۹۵ - ۱۲:۰۵
بیزینس مانیتور

صنعت کشتیرانی در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015

BMI Industry View

Our outlook for the Iranian shipping sector depends on the current rapprochement between the pariah state and the West, and the attendant relaxation of sanctions, continuing. The Iranian economy will expand slowly in 2015 as talks on the nuclear programme continue without reaching a breakthrough, and BMI projects real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2015, following our estimate of a 2.9% contraction in 2013 and 2.8% growth in 2014. The shipping sector will be a major beneficiary of an easing of sanctions, not only through a general recovery in the economy, but also from a fundamental perspective. The removal of port operator Tidewater from EU sanction lists means that international shipping companies are set to begin calling at Iranian ports such as Bandar Abbas once more. Growth will take time to recover, however, given the massive inflation seen in Iran in recent years, and the damage done to consumers' purchasing power as a result.

 صنعت کشتیرانی در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015

Headline Industry Data

■ 2015 port of Bandar Abbas throughput forecast to grow by 6.7%, and average growth of 6.8% to 2019.

■ 2019 port of Bandar Abbas throughput expected to reach 2.19mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) - still insufficient to match 2011 volumes.

■ 2015 total real trade is forecast to return to growth at 2.9%, and average 2.2% to 2019.

Key Industry Trends

India-Afghan Trade To Be Boosted By New Links: Trade volumes between India and Afghanistan will be boosted, with the long delayed Chabahar port project in Iran moving forward. The port will also offer India greater access to the Central Asian market via Iran.

صنعت کشتیرانی در ایران

European Shipping Lines Unable To Restart Operations: Foreign shipping companies have expressed eagerness to cooperate with the port of Shaheed Rajayee in Iran, according to Ali Jahandideh, deputy head of the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organisation. International shipping lines have commenced loading and unloading operations following the lifting of Western sanctions against the port.

New Shipping Service Agreement To Be Signed Soon, Says Ambassador: Iran and Oman plan to collaborate to start a new shipping service in order to boost trade between the two countries, according to the Iranian ambassador to the Sultanate, Ali Akbar Sibeveih. Talks for setting up the shipping line have been going on since March 2014 and a deal is expected to be signed within three months, stated Sibeveih.

Key Risks To Outlook

There are serious risks to all our forecasts for Iranian shipping, just as there are to our macroeconomic outlook for the country. Should the current rapprochement between Iran with the West and the US continue, there is serious upside risk to our outlook as sanctions continue to be removed. The lifting of sanctions on shipping insurance, for example, has already resulted in an increase in oil exports, and the Q314 removal of sanctions against port operator Tidewater will see container volumes at Bandar Abbas grow once more.

Equally, it should be noted that if negotiations stumble, the end position could be worse than it currently is if even harsher restrictions on Iranian trade are imposed. This would generate downside risk to our forecasts.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت کشتیرانی در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2015