کد خبر: ۳۵۹۵
تاریخ انتشار: ۱۰ آبان ۱۳۹۵ - ۰۹:۲۲
بیزینس مانیتور

صنعت پتروشیمی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2016

BMI Industry View
The lifting of sanctions will stimulate an immediate export boost for the Iranian petrochemicals industry, which has been operating well under capacity even as it has expanded in recent years. The government has ambitious plans for the sector with the hope that foreign investment will enable it to leverage its massive upstream resources to expand basic chemicals output. However, Iran continues to face infrastructural and
regulatory difficulties and a depressed market outlook. Until these are overcome, the industry will struggle to meet the target of more than doubling petrochemicals capacity to 129mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2021.
The surge in capacity will not be sustainable if feedstock supply is not forthcoming and markets do not absorb output. Some complexes are suffering feedstock shortages, particularly during winter months.
Iranian petrochemical complexes need 30-35mn cubic metres of gas per day. Besides pressure on supply, Iranian ethane feedstock is nearly three times more expensive than in Saudi Arabia. While the plants may nominally come on stream, operation rates could be low and plants will be operating at a loss unless Iranian producers can pass on the full costs of production onto consumers in export markets.

 صنعت پتروشیمی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2016

Investor wariness will affect Iran's hopes of diversifying downstream operations, but also its ability to increase upstream capacities, which are crucial to the development of the petrochemical sector. The political will to liberalise the petrochemicals sector is also wavering. Overbearing state interventionism and price fixing have prevented the growth of the industry. A reduction in state involvement in the sector and the
provision of more facilities to investors are essential to secure future growth in petrochemicals capacity. A growing export market is also essential to help offset the negative impact of domestic sales at government fixed rates.
■ Planned projects would raise Iran's petrochemicals capacity three-fold to 180mn tpa by 2022, although it is uncertain whether this target will be reached. BMI expects the next five years to see the completion of the Olefins 11 and 12 project, which will have capacities of 2.0mn tpa and 1.2mn tpa respectively.
Meanwhile, the USD12bn petrochemical hub at Chabahar - the Makran Petrochemical Plan - will add 1.2mn tpa of ethylene and 900,000tpa of PE.

 صنعت پتروشیمی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2016

• Iran's main export market, China, will move towards self-sufficiency, while Asian markets will be increasingly supplied by low-cost US petrochemicals output. Low-capacity utilisation is therefore going to be an enduring problem. Moreover, although Iran will be keen to secure tie-ups with European petrochemicals producers, the country will retain a highly risky business environment, and there is no certainty that Iran's isolation will end. The industry will need foreign skills and equipment if it is to add value to output and diversify its product portfolio.
• This quarter, Iran has seen a 0.2 point increase in its overall petrochemicals  Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score to 63.6 due to a two-point increase in its market risk score. Further detailed investment agreements could hike the score further. Significant obstacles to investment remain and further reform to investment regulations is necessary, alongside infrastructural improvements, if Iran is to match its Arabian Gulf neighbours. It remains in third place behind the UAE in the regional RRI rankings, but has increased its lead over Kuwait.

 صنعت پتروشیمی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2016

• We forecast growth of 3-6% leading to a boost across a range of industrial sectors. Oil and gas will gain the most attention, but petrochemicals are also very well placed as the provider of raw material for growth industries, such as packaging and automotive sectors. Pent-up demand, a youthful population, a skilled workforce and a large hydrocarbon and consumer story all make Iran one of the most positive and relatively well-balanced growth stories in the Middle East over the next decade.