گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور صنعت کشتیرانی

In our view neither a projected slowdown in global box volumes nor current sanctions will slow growth in Iran's container shipping sector.

The country's main container port Bandar Abbas, defied the downturn in 2009, posting a year-on-year (yo- y) increase in box volumes of 10% to reach 2.2mn TEU. We project further growth over the mid term with the box throughput at the facility projected to pass the 3mn TEU milestone in 2014.

Sanctions are currently concentrated toward Iran's oil production and gasoline exports, but we fear that with the spot light being shone on Iran's state owned shipping company, Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line (IRISL) container operations of the firm could be hit with more stop and searches of IRISL's vessels on the cards.

The company has already demonstrated its ability to get round previous sanctions and Iran has already fired a warning shot that if any of its ships are searched it will respond in kind. However, further sanctions could lead to downside potential to our trade and port throughput forecasts for Iran.

Box throughput at Iran's main container port managed to continue growing in the downturn, highlighting the strength of box-shipping demand

Large young consumer base spurring container demand

Sanctions offer obvious downside risk to lines operating in Iran's container shipping sector

Port development likely to become reliant on domestic firms as international companies are warned off

While BMI holds a global container shipping view that the container sector's recovery will slow in H210, we believe that Iran is fairly well insulated from this threat and that box throughput at the port of Bandar Abbas will grow at a stronger rate than in 2009