کد خبر: ۲۱۷۸
تاریخ انتشار: ۰۳ آبان ۱۳۹۴ - ۱۵:۰۹

بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت ارتباطات درایران-سه ماهه اول2011

Executive Summary
In this quarter’s BMI Iran Telecommunications Report, we have extended our forecasts for fixed-line, mobile and internet to 2015. Obtaining operational data has once more been difficult as the majority of operators do not release information, with the exception of MTN Irancell. This has led BMI to estimate data based on historical official data and those of MTN.

At the end of September 2010, BMI believes that the number of mobile subscribers present in the Iranian market had reached 67.296mn. This represented a y-o-y increase of 20.9% from when official figures were last released by TCI in September 2009, and which stated there were 55.642mn. Despite penetration rates at close to 90%, we believe that the level of growth has been due to the demand for prepaid services borne out of promotions and campaigns on offer as the market’s five operators battle to gain greater market share. This, therefore also means that the number of subscribers contains a significant number of inactive prepaid subscribers.

A prepaid heavy subscriber mix has meant that ARPUs remain significantly low in Iran at around US$8, according to MTN Irancell data. The continued domination of prepaid subscribers would lead to ARPUs becoming weaker further still and which would ultimately mean that funds for investments could decline. In view of this, greater attention toward the development of 3G services is required to help build on mobile data services. Unfortunately, the regulatory authority has stated that it will not be licensing a second operator to offer 3G for a further three years, since allowing Tamin Telecom to offer 3G services in early 2010.

Regulatory developments in the broadband market also serve to highlight potential problems to future growth in the sector. Iran’s government is looking to establish a separate internet for the country which would confine users to a domestic-only network, according to several press sources. The announcement made in late October 2010 would mean that Iranian internet users would be cut off from the global internet network. Iran’s government argues that there is a need for a domestic internet network given that it would allow for cheaper bandwidths and also internet service prices, however, more important, is that it would also enable the government to dismiss content that they deem as leading to the destabilisation of the political environment of the country.

Meanwhile, Iran’s position in the Middle East and North African Business Environment Ratings table remains unchanged in fifteenth place, at the bottom of the table. Much of the reason for the low position relates to poor regulatory scores and the weak macroeconomic environment.





بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت ارتباطات درایران-سه ماهه اول2011