بیزینس مانیتور
صنعت داروسازی و بهداشت در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2016
BMI Industry View
BMI View: The Iranian government is looking to attract greater direct investment by leveraging the growing interest of multinational pharmaceutical companies interested in exploring the high-growth potential of Iran's pharmaceutical market in the post-sanctions period. However, given underlying operating challenges within Iran's pharmaceutical market, the arrival of multinational drugmakers will be a gradual process, rather than an immediate boom.
Headline Expenditure Projections
■ Pharmaceuticals: IRR69.55trn (USD1.93bn) in 2015 to IRR79.85trn (USD2.00bn) in 2016; +14.8% in local currency terms and +3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded from previous quarter.
■ Healthcare: IRR800.60trn (USD22.24bn) in 2015 to IRR898.48trn (USD22.46bn) in 2016; +12.2% in local currency terms and +1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from previous quarter.
Risk/Reward Index
Iran scores 40.4 out of 100 in terms of its attractiveness as a destination to launch innovative pharmaceuticals in Q316, up from 38.0 in the previous quarter, according to BMI's Risk/Reward Index.
Iran's position in the regional rankings has jumped four places in Q316 to 15th out of the 31 countries in the Middle East and Africa region. Its overall score is steadily approaching the regional average of 41.3.
Generally speaking, Iran benefits from a large and growing population and relatively widespread access to healthcare services. However, its regulatory regime - including intellectual property rights and economic situation - is highly questionable. Consequently, the country performs below the regional average in terms of risk despite improvements in the political situation.
Latest Updates
■ In May 2016, Iran and Japan announced a new agreement to boost bilateral cooperation in the areas of construction and equipment of hospitals, transferring of PhD students and pharmaceuticals.
■ In May 2016, the Addiction Department of the Ministry of Health announced plans to open 140 alcohol rehab clinics by the end of the year. The plan aims to reduce the number of Iranians who suffer from alcohol addiction, currently numbered at 200,000.
BMI Economic View
Iran's banking sector will benefit from the removal of most sanctions at the start of 2016, but will remain in a state of near-crisis over the coming quarters. Lending growth will pick up sharply in line with an improving economy, and low base effects and lower inflation will ensure sustained deposit growth.
BMI Political View
The results of the runoffs in Iran's parliamentary elections show an even larger swing in favour of the moderate and reformist camp within Iranian politics than the first round of voting, offering a major boost to President Rouhani following the nuclear deal and ahead of presidential elections in June 2017, which we expect him to win.
Headline Expenditure Projections
■ Pharmaceuticals: IRR69.55trn (USD1.93bn) in 2015 to IRR79.85trn (USD2.00bn) in 2016; +14.8% in local currency terms and +3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast upgraded from previous quarter.
■ Healthcare: IRR800.60trn (USD22.24bn) in 2015 to IRR898.48trn (USD22.46bn) in 2016; +12.2% in local currency terms and +1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast downgraded from previous quarter.
Risk/Reward Index
Iran scores 40.4 out of 100 in terms of its attractiveness as a destination to launch innovative pharmaceuticals in Q316, up from 38.0 in the previous quarter, according to BMI's Risk/Reward Index.
Iran's position in the regional rankings has jumped four places in Q316 to 15th out of the 31 countries in the Middle East and Africa region. Its overall score is steadily approaching the regional average of 41.3.
Generally speaking, Iran benefits from a large and growing population and relatively widespread access to healthcare services. However, its regulatory regime - including intellectual property rights and economic situation - is highly questionable. Consequently, the country performs below the regional average in terms of risk despite improvements in the political situation.
Latest Updates
■ In May 2016, Iran and Japan announced a new agreement to boost bilateral cooperation in the areas of construction and equipment of hospitals, transferring of PhD students and pharmaceuticals.
■ In May 2016, the Addiction Department of the Ministry of Health announced plans to open 140 alcohol rehab clinics by the end of the year. The plan aims to reduce the number of Iranians who suffer from alcohol addiction, currently numbered at 200,000.
BMI Economic View
Iran's banking sector will benefit from the removal of most sanctions at the start of 2016, but will remain in a state of near-crisis over the coming quarters. Lending growth will pick up sharply in line with an improving economy, and low base effects and lower inflation will ensure sustained deposit growth.
BMI Political View
The results of the runoffs in Iran's parliamentary elections show an even larger swing in favour of the moderate and reformist camp within Iranian politics than the first round of voting, offering a major boost to President Rouhani following the nuclear deal and ahead of presidential elections in June 2017, which we expect him to win.
گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت داروسازی و بهداشت در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2016
