کسب و کار کشاورزی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: Over the longer term, we believe that continued investment by the government to improve infrastructure - such as the improvement of irrigation systems - will help the country turn away from its backward agrarian system and will yield results in terms of better-quality grains. We are especially upbeat in our outlook for grains and sugar production. Recent financial sanctions designed to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme played havoc with Iran's ability to import goods, making food price inflation soar. The election of President Hassan Rouhani, a more moderate leader than his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has seen the country adopt a more conciliatory stance with the West, with many sanctions being eased or removed.

Agribusiness Market Value

BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

■ Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 6.1% to 15.1mn tonnes. Wheat yields are expected to improve owing to the modernisation of technology, including hardier grains variants, greater access to relevant inputs and a larger area of the country benefiting from new irrigation facilities.

■ Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 18.2% to 2.5mn tonnes. Sugar demand will be mainly driven by population growth.

■ Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 15.9% to 927,400 tonnes. Growth will be driven by domestic demand and the effects of increased investment.

■ BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD47.3bn in 2015 (up 0.2% compared with 2014; growth forecast to average 2.9% annually between 2014 and 2019).

■ 2015 real GDP growth: 1.4% (up from 1.2% in 2014; predicted to average 2.7% from 2014-2019).

■ 2015 consumer price inflation: 23.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) (up from 21.0% y-o-y in 2014; predicted to average 15.8% y-o-y from 2014-2019).

Key Developments

The outlook for Iran's livestock and dairy sectors in the short and medium term is improving. A recovery in farm profitability will help production to grow in 2014/15 after two seasons of stagnation on the back of skyrocketing feed prices. In the medium term, the easing of sanctions is likely to boost Iran's economy, paving the way for substantial foreign investment that has been on hold. The oil and gas industry, along with infrastructure, would be obvious beneficiaries; however, agribusiness projects, especially in the livestock and dairy sectors, are also likely to benefit from the easing of sanctions. Large agribusiness companies are already present in Iran and most, such as Danone, entered the market before international sanctions were imposed in 2012.

Since the agreement, Iran has made a number of deals related to grain and fertiliser imports, which demonstrates that hurdles to imports are easing. In September 2013, Iran's Agricultural Support Services Company issued a tender to buy 60,000 tonnes of potassium sulphate, its first tender in two years. Belgian chemical firm Tessenderlo won this tender. We believe private Iranian buyers are likely to make more active purchases this year as trade becomes easier in line with the easing of restrictions on Iran's banking system. The government stepped up state purchases in recent years in order to deal with rising hurdles to trade.

The aforementioned sanctions have also affected the rice industry and Iran has been increasingly relying on Indian rice exporters since 2011. India was one of the few countries to have a barter trade system and other payment mechanisms with Iran, which helped India to import oil and export rice and other items to Iran.

However, the recent progress in talks between Iran and Western countries to reach an agreement on the former's nuclear programme may weaken the Indian advantage by eventually allowing free trading in US dollars. This is likely to favour Thai and mostly Pakistani exports, as these countries are traditionally the largest suppliers to Iran.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- کسب و کار کشاورزی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2015