گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-کسب وکارکشاورزی درایران-سه ماهه سوم 2010
Executive Summary
BMI View: Grains production in 2009/10 has been stronger than expected after the disastrous 2008/09 season, which saw severe droughts result in grains production dropping by a third. Although the sector has failed to recover to the levels seen in 2007/08 improved weather conditions has seen the sector's recovery hasten.
Key Views
Yields are improving driven by modern technology, greater access to inputs and the expansion of irrigation facilities.
Wheat production in 2009/10 estimated to have increased by 46.7% year-on-year reaching 14.69mn tonnes; forecast to reach 15.91mn in 2013/14.
After declining by 33.3% in 2008/09 barley production is estimated to have expanded by 33.2% in 2009/10 to hit 2.66mn tonnes; demand for feed barley from the livestock sector will help push barley production to 3.08mn tonnes in 2013/14.
Industry Developments
Meanwhile, beef remains prohibitively expensive for many Iranians and we forecast demand for beef to increase by just 14% over the five years to 2013/14. This will see beef demand reach 576.5mn tonnes continuing to leave Iran with a sizeable beef import requirement, a contributing factor to high prices.
Sugar production was the worst affected by the 2008/09 drought with supply plummeting by more than 50% to 550,000 tonnes. With rainfall improving and the strengthening of global sugar prices expected to encourage more land area dedicated to the planting of sugar crops, production is forecast to expand through to 2013/14 reaching 1.61mn tonnes.
We remain concerned that further UN-backed trade sanctions could be imposed on Iran owing to its Uranium enrichment programme. In addition to frightening private investors from the country's agricultural sectors, any pressure on Iranian GDP will see public investment restricted. Meanwhile, tightening disposable incomes may result in consumer demand for food stuffs beginning to wane.
BMI View: Grains production in 2009/10 has been stronger than expected after the disastrous 2008/09 season, which saw severe droughts result in grains production dropping by a third. Although the sector has failed to recover to the levels seen in 2007/08 improved weather conditions has seen the sector's recovery hasten.
Key Views
Yields are improving driven by modern technology, greater access to inputs and the expansion of irrigation facilities.
Wheat production in 2009/10 estimated to have increased by 46.7% year-on-year reaching 14.69mn tonnes; forecast to reach 15.91mn in 2013/14.
After declining by 33.3% in 2008/09 barley production is estimated to have expanded by 33.2% in 2009/10 to hit 2.66mn tonnes; demand for feed barley from the livestock sector will help push barley production to 3.08mn tonnes in 2013/14.
Industry Developments
Meanwhile, beef remains prohibitively expensive for many Iranians and we forecast demand for beef to increase by just 14% over the five years to 2013/14. This will see beef demand reach 576.5mn tonnes continuing to leave Iran with a sizeable beef import requirement, a contributing factor to high prices.
Sugar production was the worst affected by the 2008/09 drought with supply plummeting by more than 50% to 550,000 tonnes. With rainfall improving and the strengthening of global sugar prices expected to encourage more land area dedicated to the planting of sugar crops, production is forecast to expand through to 2013/14 reaching 1.61mn tonnes.
We remain concerned that further UN-backed trade sanctions could be imposed on Iran owing to its Uranium enrichment programme. In addition to frightening private investors from the country's agricultural sectors, any pressure on Iranian GDP will see public investment restricted. Meanwhile, tightening disposable incomes may result in consumer demand for food stuffs beginning to wane.
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