بیزینس مانیتور
صنعت محصولات الکترونیکی در ایران- سه ماهه دوم 2014
BMI Industry View
BMI
View: While we believe there is some scope for upside potential to our
growth forecasts, we do not expect the effect to be seen before the end
of 2014. The opening up of the 3G market to other players should drive
demand for smartphones in the medium- to long-term, and we expect the
lifting of sanction in 2013 to begin to take effect on market growth and
the availability of devices towards the end of 2014. Iran's large
population offers considerable growth potential. However, we believe the
government's continued interference with internet services and content
will limit the appetite for computers and broadband services, although
many Iranians will be unaware of the differences.
eadline Expenditure Projections
■ Computer Sales:
US$5.1bn in 2014 to US$6.7bn by 2018; low PC penetration means
significant potential, but the cost of devices remains a barrier to
rapid growth.
■ AV and Gaming Device Sales:
US$2.4bn in 2014 to US$3.0bn in 2018; digital broadcasting offers
opportunities, but demand is nevertheless likely to be weakest in this
segment.
■ Handset Sales:
US$2.0bn in 2014 to US$2.6bn in 2018; the slow development of 3G
services by telecoms operators will slow the potential for smartphones,
but increased competition in the 3G market from 2014 poses upside risks
in the long term.
Risk/Reward Rating
Iran's
score was 38.8 out of 100, the second lowest in the region, ahead of
only Egypt and nearly ten points behind Oman in eighth position. Iran's
score is dragged down by its Industry Risks and Country Risks scores: in
both categories Iran has the lowest score in the region.
Key Trends & Developments
The
3G market continues to be held back in Iran, with the two largest
operators having a combined market share of 99%, and they will continue
to be restricted to EDGE and GPRS services into 2014. We therefore
expect the smartphone market will only gain significant growth momentum
from 2014 and into 2015.
Finally,
despite the easing of sanctions on communications devices, the
tightening of sanctions on Iran's financial sector in early 2013 has
made it more challenging for vendors to source internationally branded
products directly from East Asia. Many have resorted to importing
products via the Middle East and Turkey, which resulted in higher
customs tariffs.
In the AV market replacement TV set purchases
will be driven by the roll-out of digital TV broadcasting. Iran launched
its first digital TV channel in January 2012 after developments
gathered pace in 2011. Larger screen sizes and increased features will
encourage consumers to upgrade their existing sets. The switch to
digital TV will provide short-term impetus to market growth.