گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت فلزات در ایران - سه ماهه دوم 2010
Executive Summary
The Iranian steel industry is one of the fastest growing in the world and managed to buck global trends with 9.1% growth in crude steel output to 10.87mn tonnes in 2009. While the trend is set to continue as capacity expands over the next few years, the country will remain dependent on imports for the foreseeable future.
BMI forecasts crude steel output growth of 7.4% to 11.68mn tonnes in 2010, while hot-rolled output is also set to rise 7.8% to 10.93mn tonnes. We anticipate 6.1% growth in apparent finished steel consumption to 26.32mn tonnes, which should require an increase in imports despite the growth in domestic output. BMI forecasts import growth of 22.5% to 6.77mn tonnes. High rates of growth are being sustained by the government’s fiscal largesse, which is maintaining domestic demand and industrial growth on the back of recovering oil prices. Despite the importance of imports to the domestic market, Iran is aiming to become a significant metals exporter. BMI estimates that in the 2009 calendar year Iran exported 834,000 tonnes of steel products, up 57% y-o-y. By 2014, we forecast annual exports exceeding 4mn tonnes, generating US$4.2bn in income.
Eight new steel plants are due to come on stream by 2011, adding at least 6.4mn tpa to the country’s annual production capacity, according to the government. Hormozgan Steel was due to complete the construction of its new 1.5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) steel slab plant by March 2010 and will be followed by the commissioning of cold and hot rolled production. It forms part of the Persian Gulf Mines and Metals Special Economic Zone, located in Hormozgan province, which is set to see investment of US$5bn by 2013. The Hormozal aluminium smelter was due to commence commercial operations at the
zone in January 2010 with production capacity of 147,000tpa, thereby boosting national smelting capacity from 310,000tpa to 457,000tpa. The Chaharmahal Bakhtiari Auto Sheet Company was also expected to start commercial production at its new galvanised steel plant in March with capacity of 400,000tpa. It will be Iran’s first plate-maker with the capability to produce automobile galvanised plates.
As a result of large capacity additions, BMI believes that Iranian steel production will expand very rapidly. Between 2011 and 2014, we forecast annual growth of around 25%, driven by the rapid industrialisation of the country and the expected expansion of the economy. However, BMI remains doubtful that the industry will meet its target of 34mn tpa capacity by March 2015, with project delays expected. We forecast crude steel output reaching 28.56mn tonnes by 2014, up nearly three-fold over 2008 levels. BMI believes that financing, expertise and infrastructure will not be sufficient for the aspirations of the steel industry, with some projects set to see lengthy delays. Nevertheless, the level of growth is still unprecedented in Iranian history and should transform Iran into a significant steel producer and exporter, provided it retains access to Gulf markets.
International sanctions will affect aluminium producers more than steelmakers with their impact already being seen on aluminium consumers. Imports – mostly from the EU – comprised half the 250,000 tonnes the country consumed in the 2008/09 Iranian year, ending 20 March. Inconsistent pricing with lower prices on the London Metals Exchange (LME) has simply complicated the situation, with aluminium consumers bypassing local traders and sourcing raw material from foreign markets. At the same time, the energy needs of smelting operations require an increase in electricity generation and aluminium producers are keen to see the establishment of large-scale nuclear power stations, mindful that the country’s oil, gas and hydroelectric potential will not be enough. The US’s opposition to Iran’s nuclear programme therefore poses a major obstacle to the development of Iran’s aluminium industry.
The Iranian steel industry is one of the fastest growing in the world and managed to buck global trends with 9.1% growth in crude steel output to 10.87mn tonnes in 2009. While the trend is set to continue as capacity expands over the next few years, the country will remain dependent on imports for the foreseeable future.
BMI forecasts crude steel output growth of 7.4% to 11.68mn tonnes in 2010, while hot-rolled output is also set to rise 7.8% to 10.93mn tonnes. We anticipate 6.1% growth in apparent finished steel consumption to 26.32mn tonnes, which should require an increase in imports despite the growth in domestic output. BMI forecasts import growth of 22.5% to 6.77mn tonnes. High rates of growth are being sustained by the government’s fiscal largesse, which is maintaining domestic demand and industrial growth on the back of recovering oil prices. Despite the importance of imports to the domestic market, Iran is aiming to become a significant metals exporter. BMI estimates that in the 2009 calendar year Iran exported 834,000 tonnes of steel products, up 57% y-o-y. By 2014, we forecast annual exports exceeding 4mn tonnes, generating US$4.2bn in income.
Eight new steel plants are due to come on stream by 2011, adding at least 6.4mn tpa to the country’s annual production capacity, according to the government. Hormozgan Steel was due to complete the construction of its new 1.5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) steel slab plant by March 2010 and will be followed by the commissioning of cold and hot rolled production. It forms part of the Persian Gulf Mines and Metals Special Economic Zone, located in Hormozgan province, which is set to see investment of US$5bn by 2013. The Hormozal aluminium smelter was due to commence commercial operations at the
zone in January 2010 with production capacity of 147,000tpa, thereby boosting national smelting capacity from 310,000tpa to 457,000tpa. The Chaharmahal Bakhtiari Auto Sheet Company was also expected to start commercial production at its new galvanised steel plant in March with capacity of 400,000tpa. It will be Iran’s first plate-maker with the capability to produce automobile galvanised plates.
As a result of large capacity additions, BMI believes that Iranian steel production will expand very rapidly. Between 2011 and 2014, we forecast annual growth of around 25%, driven by the rapid industrialisation of the country and the expected expansion of the economy. However, BMI remains doubtful that the industry will meet its target of 34mn tpa capacity by March 2015, with project delays expected. We forecast crude steel output reaching 28.56mn tonnes by 2014, up nearly three-fold over 2008 levels. BMI believes that financing, expertise and infrastructure will not be sufficient for the aspirations of the steel industry, with some projects set to see lengthy delays. Nevertheless, the level of growth is still unprecedented in Iranian history and should transform Iran into a significant steel producer and exporter, provided it retains access to Gulf markets.
International sanctions will affect aluminium producers more than steelmakers with their impact already being seen on aluminium consumers. Imports – mostly from the EU – comprised half the 250,000 tonnes the country consumed in the 2008/09 Iranian year, ending 20 March. Inconsistent pricing with lower prices on the London Metals Exchange (LME) has simply complicated the situation, with aluminium consumers bypassing local traders and sourcing raw material from foreign markets. At the same time, the energy needs of smelting operations require an increase in electricity generation and aluminium producers are keen to see the establishment of large-scale nuclear power stations, mindful that the country’s oil, gas and hydroelectric potential will not be enough. The US’s opposition to Iran’s nuclear programme therefore poses a major obstacle to the development of Iran’s aluminium industry.
مطالب مرتبط
