گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت فلزات در ایران - سه ماهه سوم2010
Executive Summary
Despite a surge in capacity over the next two years and the consequent value added, Iranian steel and aluminium producers will struggle to operate at anywhere near capacity over the medium term. Domestic consumption growth is set to tail off and export markets will be unable to absorb the country’s surplus according to this latest BMI Metals Report for Iran.
Crude steel production in the Iranian year 1388 (ending 20 March 2010) was 10.87mn tonnes, an increase of 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) and slightly under the government’s target. In the first month of the current Iranian year, crude steel production exceeded 1.01mn tonnes, up 5% y-o-y. Steel products manufactured this month reached 942,500 tonnes, up 23% y-o-y. Meanwhile, total steel export volumes reached 65,800 tonnes, worth US$34.5mn (up 14% y-o-y). In the aluminium sector, production reached just under 342,300 tonnes in 2009/10, representing growth of 13% y-o-y.
Mobarakeh Steel has maintained its dominance in the Iranian steel sector as the largest producer and exporter of crude, semis and finished steel products. Producers with a higher level of value-added production naturally secured a larger proportion of domestic steel sales by value. While Khuzestan Steel was the country’s second largest crude steel producer with a 24% share of output by tonnage, with little downstream production it represented just 14% of domestic sales by value. In contrast, Esfahan Steel and National Iranian Steel had 20% and 10% of crude steel output respectively, but with 25% and 28% of semi-finished and finished production they were able to secure 27% and 18% market share by value.
However, a high proportion of Iran’s exports are in the form of crude steel, representing 45% of volume in 2009/10. Consequently, Khuzestan Steel represented 42% of volume and 38.3% of value of exports, with Mobarakeh Steel contributing in 54% volume and 56.5% in value. Together, Esfahan Steel and National Iranian Steel represented 4% of volume and 5.2% of value, with the majority of their sales conducted on the domestic market.
Following an increase in capacities in 2009 and plans for the commissioning of more plants in 2010, Iran is set to boost steel output. Esfahan Steel plans to raise finished longs production by around 10% y-o-y to 2.75mn tonnes in 2010/11. Mobarakeh Steel plans to up output by over 8% to 5.3mn tonnes and aims to reach an annual capacity of 9-10mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2014. In addition, major new complexes are due to come on-stream, such as the Hormozgan Steel plant. The Hormozgan Steel mill has a capacity of 1.5mn tpa of slab. Its two DRI modules, each with a capacity of 800,000tpa, were commissioned in March and November 2009. The long-term goal is to make the zone a national hub of steel and aluminium production with capacities of 10mn tpa (for steel) and 500,000tpa (aluminium). Khuzestan
Steel has raised its nominal crude steel production capacity to 3.2mn tpa following the completion of development plans in early 2009. As a result, it is ramping up output. In the first month of the 2010/11 Iranian calendar year, Khuzestan Steel’s output grew 20% y-o-y to a record high of 271,618 tonnes, with the company having already raised its crude steel output by 9% y-o-y to 2.36mn tonnes in 2009/10. Meanwhile, private sector steelmaker Yazd Steel Group began commissioning its new 500,000tpa rolling mill in Q210, producing I and U beams.
In the light of capacity expansion in 2010, BMI has raised the forecast growth rate for crude production in 2010 from 7.4% to 9.5%, with output set to reach around 11.9mn tonnes, up from 11.7mn tonnes forecast in the previous quarter. At the same time, the country is increasing the value of steel production with new hot and cold rolling mills and downstream production facilities. Hot-rolled output is also set to rise 10% to 10.66mn tonnes. We anticipate 6.1% growth in apparent finished steel consumption to 16.56mn tonnes. However, growth in domestic capacities should limit growth in imports, which we forecast at 5%, totalling 8.7mn tonnes.
Despite a surge in capacity over the next two years and the consequent value added, Iranian steel and aluminium producers will struggle to operate at anywhere near capacity over the medium term. Domestic consumption growth is set to tail off and export markets will be unable to absorb the country’s surplus according to this latest BMI Metals Report for Iran.
Crude steel production in the Iranian year 1388 (ending 20 March 2010) was 10.87mn tonnes, an increase of 2% year-on-year (y-o-y) and slightly under the government’s target. In the first month of the current Iranian year, crude steel production exceeded 1.01mn tonnes, up 5% y-o-y. Steel products manufactured this month reached 942,500 tonnes, up 23% y-o-y. Meanwhile, total steel export volumes reached 65,800 tonnes, worth US$34.5mn (up 14% y-o-y). In the aluminium sector, production reached just under 342,300 tonnes in 2009/10, representing growth of 13% y-o-y.
Mobarakeh Steel has maintained its dominance in the Iranian steel sector as the largest producer and exporter of crude, semis and finished steel products. Producers with a higher level of value-added production naturally secured a larger proportion of domestic steel sales by value. While Khuzestan Steel was the country’s second largest crude steel producer with a 24% share of output by tonnage, with little downstream production it represented just 14% of domestic sales by value. In contrast, Esfahan Steel and National Iranian Steel had 20% and 10% of crude steel output respectively, but with 25% and 28% of semi-finished and finished production they were able to secure 27% and 18% market share by value.
However, a high proportion of Iran’s exports are in the form of crude steel, representing 45% of volume in 2009/10. Consequently, Khuzestan Steel represented 42% of volume and 38.3% of value of exports, with Mobarakeh Steel contributing in 54% volume and 56.5% in value. Together, Esfahan Steel and National Iranian Steel represented 4% of volume and 5.2% of value, with the majority of their sales conducted on the domestic market.
Following an increase in capacities in 2009 and plans for the commissioning of more plants in 2010, Iran is set to boost steel output. Esfahan Steel plans to raise finished longs production by around 10% y-o-y to 2.75mn tonnes in 2010/11. Mobarakeh Steel plans to up output by over 8% to 5.3mn tonnes and aims to reach an annual capacity of 9-10mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2014. In addition, major new complexes are due to come on-stream, such as the Hormozgan Steel plant. The Hormozgan Steel mill has a capacity of 1.5mn tpa of slab. Its two DRI modules, each with a capacity of 800,000tpa, were commissioned in March and November 2009. The long-term goal is to make the zone a national hub of steel and aluminium production with capacities of 10mn tpa (for steel) and 500,000tpa (aluminium). Khuzestan
Steel has raised its nominal crude steel production capacity to 3.2mn tpa following the completion of development plans in early 2009. As a result, it is ramping up output. In the first month of the 2010/11 Iranian calendar year, Khuzestan Steel’s output grew 20% y-o-y to a record high of 271,618 tonnes, with the company having already raised its crude steel output by 9% y-o-y to 2.36mn tonnes in 2009/10. Meanwhile, private sector steelmaker Yazd Steel Group began commissioning its new 500,000tpa rolling mill in Q210, producing I and U beams.
In the light of capacity expansion in 2010, BMI has raised the forecast growth rate for crude production in 2010 from 7.4% to 9.5%, with output set to reach around 11.9mn tonnes, up from 11.7mn tonnes forecast in the previous quarter. At the same time, the country is increasing the value of steel production with new hot and cold rolling mills and downstream production facilities. Hot-rolled output is also set to rise 10% to 10.66mn tonnes. We anticipate 6.1% growth in apparent finished steel consumption to 16.56mn tonnes. However, growth in domestic capacities should limit growth in imports, which we forecast at 5%, totalling 8.7mn tonnes.
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