گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت پتروشیمی در ایران - سه ماهه اول 2010
The Iranian petrochemicals industry is set to witness capacities more than double in the next five years, but success will be marred by diplomatic isolation, downward pressure on global product prices and the slow recovery of domestic demand, according to BMI’s latest Iran Petrochemicals Report.
According to recently released statistics from the National Iranian Petrochemical Company, petrochemical production reached 26.5mn tonnes in the 2008/09 Iranian year (ending March 20), up 69% over 2005 and around 17% up on the previous year. Exports contributed half this increase, reaching 10.6mn tonnes in 2008/09, more than double the level four years beforehand, although still 10.5% lower than the government’s target. According to government figures, the value of petrochemical exports
totalled US$8.2bn in the 2008/09 Iranian year, compared to US$3.2bn four years earlier. This was around 35% above the level achieved in the previous year, but still US$800mn below the target set by Iran’s petrochemical exporter, the IPCC. The situation may have been worse if it had not been for the final completion of the Jam Petrochemicals Complex in December 2008, three years behind schedule. Iran plans to invest US$100bn in the oil, gas and downstream industries over 2009-2013 period, including the development of North Pars, Golshan and Ferdowsi gas fields. This is to come on top of the US$66bn over 2004-2008. Iran claims that it represented 25.3% of Middle East petrochemical production in 2008, up from 16.2% in 2005.
NIPC is targeting output of 38.9mn tonnes in 2009/10. In the first three months of the year, it produced 6.85mn tonnes, which is just 3.4% more than the average quarter rate in the previous year and just 71% of capacity, which is below the 80-85% rate that BMI considers financially sustainable. Of the 38.9mn tonnes of petrochemicals produced, the target is for 12.5mn tonnes to be sold on the domestic market and 15.5mn tonnes exported. Iran’s Petrochemical Commercial Company exported 3.79mn tonnes of petrochemicals in the first four months of 2009/10, which put it just 2% behind the average needed to meet these targets. In terms of value, exports totalled US$1.88bn, just under 3% below target. Nearly a quarter of exports consisted of propane and butane.
The success in achieving the government’s ambitious objectives rests on a number of inter-related factors: the strength of the domestic economy, Iran’s diplomatic and trade relations and progress on capacity expansion. The outlook for the economy over the next five years is subdued and the recovery will be weak. This should ensure growth in the domestic petrochemicals market in all segments, but not at the rates seen in recent years. Consequently, we do not believe the projections for domestic sales are
achievable. International sanctions stemming from Iran's nuclear programme will continue to preclude any significant uptick in foreign investment in the petrochemicals industry, undermining Iran’s goal of using foreign capital and expertise in the expansion of the industry.
The Oil Ministry has set targets for annual production of 11.5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of ethylene and 11.5mn tpa of polymer. BMI forecasts that by end-2014, ethylene capacity will total 7.88mn tpa with other capacities including 7.06mn tpa PE and 1.29mn tpa PP. LDPE will contribute 43% of the 3.7mn tpa expansion in the PE sector, followed by HDPE (33%) and LLDPE (24%). The growth in the importance of LDPE in the Iranian petrochemical industry goes against global market trends that increasingly favour LLDPE as a substitute. Consequently, BMI anticipates a gradual fall in LDPE demand, thereby undermining the profitability of Iranian LDPE production
According to recently released statistics from the National Iranian Petrochemical Company, petrochemical production reached 26.5mn tonnes in the 2008/09 Iranian year (ending March 20), up 69% over 2005 and around 17% up on the previous year. Exports contributed half this increase, reaching 10.6mn tonnes in 2008/09, more than double the level four years beforehand, although still 10.5% lower than the government’s target. According to government figures, the value of petrochemical exports
totalled US$8.2bn in the 2008/09 Iranian year, compared to US$3.2bn four years earlier. This was around 35% above the level achieved in the previous year, but still US$800mn below the target set by Iran’s petrochemical exporter, the IPCC. The situation may have been worse if it had not been for the final completion of the Jam Petrochemicals Complex in December 2008, three years behind schedule. Iran plans to invest US$100bn in the oil, gas and downstream industries over 2009-2013 period, including the development of North Pars, Golshan and Ferdowsi gas fields. This is to come on top of the US$66bn over 2004-2008. Iran claims that it represented 25.3% of Middle East petrochemical production in 2008, up from 16.2% in 2005.
NIPC is targeting output of 38.9mn tonnes in 2009/10. In the first three months of the year, it produced 6.85mn tonnes, which is just 3.4% more than the average quarter rate in the previous year and just 71% of capacity, which is below the 80-85% rate that BMI considers financially sustainable. Of the 38.9mn tonnes of petrochemicals produced, the target is for 12.5mn tonnes to be sold on the domestic market and 15.5mn tonnes exported. Iran’s Petrochemical Commercial Company exported 3.79mn tonnes of petrochemicals in the first four months of 2009/10, which put it just 2% behind the average needed to meet these targets. In terms of value, exports totalled US$1.88bn, just under 3% below target. Nearly a quarter of exports consisted of propane and butane.
The success in achieving the government’s ambitious objectives rests on a number of inter-related factors: the strength of the domestic economy, Iran’s diplomatic and trade relations and progress on capacity expansion. The outlook for the economy over the next five years is subdued and the recovery will be weak. This should ensure growth in the domestic petrochemicals market in all segments, but not at the rates seen in recent years. Consequently, we do not believe the projections for domestic sales are
achievable. International sanctions stemming from Iran's nuclear programme will continue to preclude any significant uptick in foreign investment in the petrochemicals industry, undermining Iran’s goal of using foreign capital and expertise in the expansion of the industry.
The Oil Ministry has set targets for annual production of 11.5mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of ethylene and 11.5mn tpa of polymer. BMI forecasts that by end-2014, ethylene capacity will total 7.88mn tpa with other capacities including 7.06mn tpa PE and 1.29mn tpa PP. LDPE will contribute 43% of the 3.7mn tpa expansion in the PE sector, followed by HDPE (33%) and LLDPE (24%). The growth in the importance of LDPE in the Iranian petrochemical industry goes against global market trends that increasingly favour LLDPE as a substitute. Consequently, BMI anticipates a gradual fall in LDPE demand, thereby undermining the profitability of Iranian LDPE production
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