کد خبر: ۲۱۵۶
تاریخ انتشار: ۲۹ مهر ۱۳۹۴ - ۱۲:۴۸

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت پتروشیمی درایران-سه ماهه اول2011

Executive Summary
Iran’s petrochemicals industry is beginning to feel the pressure of tightened sanctions with more capacity diverted to producing fuel and Western petrochemicals companies deserting the country and investment and trade from other regions unable to make up for the shortfall, according to BMI’s latest Iran Petrochemicals Report.

In an emergency plan after the US and international sanctions regime was tightened and stopped many companies such as Royal Dutch Shell from selling gasoline to Iran, Iran announced in Q310 that it had increased its domestic gasoline production by 40%. By October 2010, gasoline production capacity in six petrochemical complexes has reached 19mn litres/d. In Q410, Iran’s largest petrochemicals plant, the National Petrochemical Company’s (NPC) Bandar Imam Petrochemical Company (BIPC), was producing around 3.5mn l/d of gasoline and will continue to supply part of Iran’s fuel needs. By October gasoline production at Nouri Petrochemical Complex in Assalouyeh also hit 6mn l/d. Despite BIPC’s assertion that petrochemicals output was not being impacted by the switch to gasoline production, Iran had actually stopped the process of producing gasoline at three other petrochemicals plants, saying domestic demand was sufficient. The Oil Ministry also stated, in September 2010, that Iran is to halt export of petrochemical products, following the implementation of the programme to boost gasoline production in petrochemical plants.

However, the sanctions regime does not mean that the future of the Iranian petrochemicals sector is doomed. Trade remained healthy throughout much of 2010. Iran’s exports of petrochemical products reached US$4bn in the first six months of the Iranian calendar year starting March 21, 2010. The country exported 7.4mn tonnes of petrochemical products, up around 35% y-o-y. Iran’s petrochemicals trade with Asia is unlikely to be immediately affected by the tougher UN sanctions regime relating to the country’s nuclear programme and further sanctions by the US and EU. However, increased political risk associated with sanctions will dampen future capacity growth in the sector, since Iran will find it more difficult to secure partners and financial backing for any project. Even without the sanctions regime, the investment climate is challenging due in large part to the regulatory processes and restrictions. Increased international isolation exacerbates the problem, with sanctions making payment and shipping processes for Iranian cargoes more complex, although some banks and shipping companies had been excluded from the list of restricted firms.

The Ministry of Petroleum has set targets for annual production of 11.5mn tpa of ethylene and 11.5mn tpa of polymer. BMI forecasts that by 2015, ethylene capacity will total 11.08mn tpa, with the expected completion of the Olefins 11 and 12 projects with capacities of 2.0mn tpa and 1.2mn tpa respectively. Other capacities including 7.06mn tpa of PE and 1.29mn tpa of PP. Areas where Iran is falling behind are the vinyls and styrenes segments. With PVC capacity set to reach just 700,000tpa and PS capacity at only 250,000tpa by 2015, Iran risks becoming more dependent on imports.

In October 2010, NPC was been given the go-ahead to start preparing its 6th Five-Year Plan for submission to the government by end-Q111. The focus of investment is expected to be the Qheshen free zone, south of Assaluyeh which is the current location of 13 ethylene crackers based on the Pars gas field. Iran’s bold 20-Year Outlook Plan envisions petrochemical output to reach 100mn tpa by 2015, but BMI regards this target, given current conditions, as verging on fantasy. Given Iran’s notoriety for lengthy project delays and a lack of investment from major global companies, we doubt NPC will come anywhere near reaching these targets. The success in achieving the government’s ambitious objectives rests on a number of related factors: the strength of the domestic economy, Iran’s diplomatic and trade relations, and progress on capacity expansion.

This quarter, Iran has maintained its fifth-place rank in BMI’s Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Rank with 56.4 points, unchanged since the previous quarter. This puts it 1.8 points behind Kuwait and 1.2 points ahead of Israel. With the state sector dominating the petrochemicals industry, Iran’s Market Risks score is low, with high levels of economic and political risk pulling down its score. In order for an improved score and ranking, Iran needs a more positive political risk outlook and a breakthrough in terms of the regulatory regime. This looks unlikely on a short to medium-term view.




گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت پتروشیمی درایران-سه ماهه اول2011