گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت پتروشیمی درایران-سه ماهه دوم 2010
Executive Summary
Figures from Iran’s National Petrochemicals Company (NPC) indicate a revival of output in the second half of the 2009/10 Iranian year (ending March 20), but BMI’s latest Iran Petrochemicals Report suggests that much of this growth is attributed to domestic consumption kept artificially high by unsustainable state spending thereby stalling the inevitable collapse in demand.
According to Iranian media reports, domestic petrochemicals production totalled 22.69mn tonnes in the first nine months of the 2009/10 Iranian year (March 21 2009 to March 20 2010). By March 20 2010, the NPC plans to produce 38.9mn tonnes, of which 15.5mn tonnes will be exported. Based on rates seen at end-2009, BMI doubts that the NPC will achieve this target and that output will not exceed 31mn tonnes. However, this is better than BMI expected in the previous quarterly report, since it represents growth of 17% over 2008/09, when output was 26.5mn tonnes (up 17% over 2007/08). Based on operating rates of around 70% capacity, we had expected output growth rates in single digits. Output has been lifted by increased capacity and domestic demand faring better than expected, although exports are unlikely to have reached the targets the government had set. Ethylene exports from Iran plunged in 2009 to about 450,000 tonnes from around 700,000 tonnes in 2008. Nevertheless, weaknesses remain and according to BMI’s estimates Iran’s petrochemical output in 2009/10 was below the 80-85% capacity utilization rate we consider financial sustainable.
NPC plans to start the construction of 46 new petrochemical complexes in the 2010/11 Iranian year that will add another 50mn tonnes per annum (tpa) to petrochemicals capacity. Totalling US$25bn, the projects are part of the government’s 20-Year Outlook Plan to reach 100mn tpa capacity by 2015, which marks the end of the fifth five-year development plan. Currently, 29 projects worth a total of US$18bn are under way which would add 22.5mn tpa to the current production capacity of around 39mn tpa. Given Iran’s notoriety for lengthy project over-runs and a lack of investment from global majors, we doubt that NPC will come anywhere near reaching these targets. The success in achieving the government’s
ambitious objectives rests on a number of inter-related factors: the strength of the domestic economy, Iran’s diplomatic and trade relations and progress on capacity expansion.
BMI forecasts that by end-2014, ethylene capacity will total 7.88mn tpa with other capacities including 7.06mn tpa PE and 1.29mn tpa PP. LDPE will contribute 43% of the 3.7mn tpa expansion in the PE sector, followed by HDPE (33%) and LLDPE (24%). Areas where Iran is falling behind are in the vinyls and styrenes segments. With PVC capacity set to reach just 700,000tpa and PS 250,000tpa by end-2014, Iran risks becoming more dependent on imports. However, with PVC and PS prices likely to come under pressure, at least over the next two to three years, BMI does not believe the markets in these petrochemical products will be strong enough to justify export-oriented production, which is the industry’s chief motivation for expansion. However, BMI believes it may be advantageous to Iranian producers to delay opening new plants in these sectors until the markets recover. This might be inevitable because of problems with feedstock allocation, which is exacerbated by cold weather in winter, when energy supplies are diverted to the power generation sector.
Figures from Iran’s National Petrochemicals Company (NPC) indicate a revival of output in the second half of the 2009/10 Iranian year (ending March 20), but BMI’s latest Iran Petrochemicals Report suggests that much of this growth is attributed to domestic consumption kept artificially high by unsustainable state spending thereby stalling the inevitable collapse in demand.
According to Iranian media reports, domestic petrochemicals production totalled 22.69mn tonnes in the first nine months of the 2009/10 Iranian year (March 21 2009 to March 20 2010). By March 20 2010, the NPC plans to produce 38.9mn tonnes, of which 15.5mn tonnes will be exported. Based on rates seen at end-2009, BMI doubts that the NPC will achieve this target and that output will not exceed 31mn tonnes. However, this is better than BMI expected in the previous quarterly report, since it represents growth of 17% over 2008/09, when output was 26.5mn tonnes (up 17% over 2007/08). Based on operating rates of around 70% capacity, we had expected output growth rates in single digits. Output has been lifted by increased capacity and domestic demand faring better than expected, although exports are unlikely to have reached the targets the government had set. Ethylene exports from Iran plunged in 2009 to about 450,000 tonnes from around 700,000 tonnes in 2008. Nevertheless, weaknesses remain and according to BMI’s estimates Iran’s petrochemical output in 2009/10 was below the 80-85% capacity utilization rate we consider financial sustainable.
NPC plans to start the construction of 46 new petrochemical complexes in the 2010/11 Iranian year that will add another 50mn tonnes per annum (tpa) to petrochemicals capacity. Totalling US$25bn, the projects are part of the government’s 20-Year Outlook Plan to reach 100mn tpa capacity by 2015, which marks the end of the fifth five-year development plan. Currently, 29 projects worth a total of US$18bn are under way which would add 22.5mn tpa to the current production capacity of around 39mn tpa. Given Iran’s notoriety for lengthy project over-runs and a lack of investment from global majors, we doubt that NPC will come anywhere near reaching these targets. The success in achieving the government’s
ambitious objectives rests on a number of inter-related factors: the strength of the domestic economy, Iran’s diplomatic and trade relations and progress on capacity expansion.
BMI forecasts that by end-2014, ethylene capacity will total 7.88mn tpa with other capacities including 7.06mn tpa PE and 1.29mn tpa PP. LDPE will contribute 43% of the 3.7mn tpa expansion in the PE sector, followed by HDPE (33%) and LLDPE (24%). Areas where Iran is falling behind are in the vinyls and styrenes segments. With PVC capacity set to reach just 700,000tpa and PS 250,000tpa by end-2014, Iran risks becoming more dependent on imports. However, with PVC and PS prices likely to come under pressure, at least over the next two to three years, BMI does not believe the markets in these petrochemical products will be strong enough to justify export-oriented production, which is the industry’s chief motivation for expansion. However, BMI believes it may be advantageous to Iranian producers to delay opening new plants in these sectors until the markets recover. This might be inevitable because of problems with feedstock allocation, which is exacerbated by cold weather in winter, when energy supplies are diverted to the power generation sector.
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