گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت خودرو در ایران - سه ماهه دوم 2010
The Iranian automotive sector has experienced a sharp fall in sales over the past two years, due to the impact of the economic crisis. However, exports have increased and Iranian carmakers are expanding their presence abroad. The Iranian government plans for the automobile industry to achieve first rank in the immediate region, fifth in Asia and 11th in the world by 2025, as reported just-auto.com in January 2010.Iran's committee of auto industry development strategy has further endorsed policies and development objectives for the automotive industry, which include producing 2mn units of light vehicle per annum for domestic market and 1mn units for export. However, the Iranian automotive industry has not escaped the effects of the global slump and will struggle to recover from the fall in demand over the forecast period. BMI estimates that unit sales fell to 197,312 in 2009, down from 446,300 in 2008 and 1,037,243 in 2007. We forecast moderate growth in 2010, taking total sales to 212,217 units.
However, on the production side, things are looking more rosy. BMI estimates total output hit 1,191,495 units for 2009, up slightly from 1,108,569 in 2008, and forecasts production of 1,243,286 in 2010. Iran Khodro Company (IKCO), which accounts for about 48% of the nation's automotive output, had a record year in 2009, manufacturing 600,460 units from the start of the Iranian year on March 21 to February 13 2010, Fars News Agency reported. It produced 600,006 units the previous year. Company officials estimate that production has increased by 16%, and they are targeting production of 680,000 units for the full Iranian year 2009-2010. Meanwhile, IKCO officials say that the company aims to export
40,000 cars in 2010 as part of its strategic plan for global sales. In order to keep its competitive advantage, the carmaker has been developing new markets, primarily in Western Europe, expanding its current market share and also improving the diversity of its products. BMI believes growth for all carmakers will depend heavily on exports and producing overseas. The rise of Saipa, whose sales increased by 18% year-on-year (y-o-y) to become the country's largest carmaker in the Iranian year ended March 31 2009, has been fuelled largely by its expansion into new export markets.
However, on the production side, things are looking more rosy. BMI estimates total output hit 1,191,495 units for 2009, up slightly from 1,108,569 in 2008, and forecasts production of 1,243,286 in 2010. Iran Khodro Company (IKCO), which accounts for about 48% of the nation's automotive output, had a record year in 2009, manufacturing 600,460 units from the start of the Iranian year on March 21 to February 13 2010, Fars News Agency reported. It produced 600,006 units the previous year. Company officials estimate that production has increased by 16%, and they are targeting production of 680,000 units for the full Iranian year 2009-2010. Meanwhile, IKCO officials say that the company aims to export
40,000 cars in 2010 as part of its strategic plan for global sales. In order to keep its competitive advantage, the carmaker has been developing new markets, primarily in Western Europe, expanding its current market share and also improving the diversity of its products. BMI believes growth for all carmakers will depend heavily on exports and producing overseas. The rise of Saipa, whose sales increased by 18% year-on-year (y-o-y) to become the country's largest carmaker in the Iranian year ended March 31 2009, has been fuelled largely by its expansion into new export markets.
Imports are a different story, however. According to reports in the Iran Daily, only six foreign carmakers have secured licenses to import cars into the country: Mercedes Benz, Toyota Motor, BMW, Hyundai Motor, Lexus and Mitsubishi Motors. The lack of competition on the Iranian market has allowed domestic manufacturers to thrive during good years, and survive the tougher years like 2009. However, it may also be that the lack of imports has stifled market growth and not exposed Iranian manufacturers to the competition that they need to become world-class. Competition also tends to bring down prices, so it is possible that the Iranian market overprices cars; the greater price flexibility encouraged by competition could have benefited the market during the 2008-2009 downturn, and encouraged a swifter recovery in 2010. Elsewhere, carmakers and dealers have slashed prices to stimulate demand, with some success.
مطالب مرتبط
