صنعت خودرو در ایران- سه ماهه چهارم 2015

BMI Industry View

We factored a permanent nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries into our sales and production forecasts earlier in the year, as it was the core view of our Country Risk team that a deal would be reached.

We therefore maintain our forecast for 35% growth in car sales in calendar year 2015, which will see the market return to just below its peak of 2011, and forecast 27% growth in total vehicle output. At the moment, much of this growth is still coming from the effects of the interim deal that was agreed and allowed some imports to recommence.

As the lifting of sanctions will only be fully finalised by the end of the year, we look to 2016 for the real results. We forecast sales growth of 20% as more brands enter the market and consumers take advantage of an unprecedented level of variety. This would take to the market to 1.8mn units - a new high for Iran and a reflection of real growth rather than just a return to pre-sanction levels. By 2017, we see the volumes

surpassing 2mn units, with an improved economy and favourable demographics adding to the choice of brands as key drivers of growth.

France's PSA Peugeot Citroen will be the main beneficiary through its Peugeot brand, which has long dominated the market. The company felt a significant financial blow from its absence from Iran and its keenness to return is underlined by the deal it already has in place with local firm IKCO to return to the market as soon as sanctions are lifted.

As for new brands to come, the lifting of sanctions provides the opportunity for US brands to enter the market, which would be a momentous shift in the competitive landscape. The Iranian Auto Parts Association claims that American brands have already expressed an interest in investing in the market, where we believe they will be playing catch-up to some of their European rivals. They will not only need to build a brand presence but also a strategy in terms of logistics and distribution, which could cost them time in getting to market.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت خودرو در ایران- سه ماهه چهارم 2015