صنعت داروسازی و بهداشت درایران-سه ماهه سوم2011

BMI View: Iran remains a challenging market for foreign drugmakers. The difficult political situation will continue to deter foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country in general, while the developed local generic manufacturing industry continues to satisfy much of domestic demand. In fact, authorities are seeking to increase local manufacturing capacities, with recent focus also covering biological medicines. High inflation and local currency devaluation will further marginalise Iran’s pharmaceutical market in terms of its commercial attractiveness. In the meantime, improvements in international relations represent upside risks to our forecasts, although the opposite would clearly increase downside risks, including those pertaining to pharmaceutical trade.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: IRR24,493bn (US$2.39bn) in 2010 to IRR28,045bn (US$2.49bn) in 2011; +14.5% in local currency terms and +4.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q211 due to macroeconomic factors.

Healthcare: IRR293,440bn (US$28.67bn) in 2010 to IRR338,698bn (US$30.06bn) in 2011;
+15.4% in local currency terms and +4.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast down marginally from Q211 due to macroeconomic factors.

Medical devices: IRR8,288bn (US$810mn) in 2010 to IRR11,230bn (US$997mn) in 2011;
+35.5% in local currency terms and +23.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast down marginally
from Q211 due to macroeconomic factors.

Business Environment Rating: In BMI’s Middle East and Africa (MEA) Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q311, Iran ranks 14th of the 19 markets surveyed in the region. Iran’s score worsened by 7% in relation to Q211, with its Risks profile more challenging than its potential Rewards. While its large population is a theoretical advantage, the country’s pricing and reimbursement regimes are considered less than ideal. Therefore, we do not envisage a drastic improvement in Iran’s position within the regional matrix over the coming months.

Key Trends & Developments

Private Iranian companies expect to construct three healthcare clinics in Dushanbe in Tajikistan,
the Iranian embassy announced on February 22 2011, AsiaPlus reported. The clinics will focus
on eye disorders, plastic and reconstructive surgery, and kidney and urologic diseases. Iranian BMI Economic View: The Iranian government is benefiting significantly from the elevation in oil prices caused by political unrest in oil-producing states such as Libya, though a slowdown in tax revenues will dampen some of its gains. We believe spending is likely to increase due to ambitious investment projects, but will not increase enough to match the increase in revenues. Some of this increase may trickle down to the healthcare system, representing an upside risks to our forecasts. However, we note that the slowdown in economic activity associated with international sanctions and the country's subsidy reform programme is likely to cause tax revenues to decline.

BMI Political View: Iran's plans to re-denominate its currency, removing three zeros from the rial over the next year, is not expected to have a positive impact on the economy. The underlying factors affecting the country's economy will not change as a result of the re-denomination and the only impact we expect is a rise in fiscal expenditure due to the costs of printing and issuing a new currency. Therefore, this increase in expenditure associated with currency re-denomination carries downside risks for healthcare and other public sector spending.