صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2016

BMI Industry View

BMI View: We maintain our construction industry growth forecast for Iran at 3.2% real growth in 2016 as we expect international sanctions to be lifted from H116. This will result in the gradual return of private investment in the country, which will considerably benefit the infrastructure sector. Although we anticipate investment opportunities across all sectors, railway projects will attract considerable investment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

■ We forecast 3.2% y-o-y real construction industry growth in Iran in 2016 and an average of 4% over the next five years as a result of the lifting of international sanctions.

• Persistently low oil prices - our Oil & Gas Team forecasts Brent to average USD54.0/bbl in 2016 - will reduce government revenue, limiting public spending in infrastructure.

• Greater competitiveness in Iran's labour market will be required to support growth in the construction industry. Although Iran's labour force is highly educated by regional standards, high labour costs will continue to pose a structural barrier to investment.

• Despite an improving outlook for Iran's infrastructure sector, the country will continue to present significant challenges, including elevated political risk, macroeconomic weaknesses, social tensions and a lack of transparency.

Risk/Reward Index

■ The agreement Iran signed with the P5+1 countries in July 2015, which will result in sanctions being lifted, is having a positive impact on Iran's risks and rewards scores. Evidencing this trend, Iran scores 41.0 out of 100 in our RRI for the Middle East this quarter, an improvement from last quarter's 37.6.

■ Iran scores 35.0 out of 100 for Industry Risks, reflecting the high barriers to entry and lack of competition in the country's infrastructure market. We expect Iran's competitive landscape to diversify considerably one international sanctions are lifted.

■ Iran receives a score of 45.0 for Country Risks, below the regional average. The country suffers from endemic levels of corruption and although nominally independent, political interference in the judicial system is rife.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت زیرساخت در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2016