کد خبر: ۳۳۹۳
تاریخ انتشار: ۱۶ شهريور ۱۳۹۵ - ۱۰:۳۷
بیزینس مانیتور

صنعت انرژی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: Iran's plans to expand its energy sector continue to be hampered by ongoing uncertainty over the outcome of international talks to loosen sanctions on the country. It appears clear that the government intends to press ahead with the construction of nuclear power stations, but perilous government finances could threaten its ability to fund new power infrastructure projects. That said, if a deal is reached and Tehran continues investing in the sector, there is significant potential for rapid growth in the years ahead.

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Despite ongoing controversy over the country's pursuit of nuclear power, the Iranian energy sector is in reasonably good shape. With abundant supplies of natural resources, Iran will continue to rely largely on conventional thermal sources for electricity generation for the foreseeable future, and many of the power projects that are currently under construction are slated to increase the nation's natural gas generation capacity. At the same time, the government appears committed to plans to increase its nuclear capacity - plans which has been boosted by progress in talks between Iran and the international community, which could see the US, the EU and other nations ease sanctions on Iran in return for the country ending its pursuit of military nuclear capability. Although the Bushehr plant (at present the country's only nuclear reactor) has suffered from significant teething problems, it has now become fully operational. That said, progress towards a more wide-ranging deal remains elusive, and as a result the outlook for the country's nuclear ambitions remains uncertain. In particular, with the recent dip in international energy prices forcing the government to cut back on social spending, there is a risk of greater political unrest in the coming months.

As pressure on the government mounts, there is potential that it may decide to adopt a more belligerent position in international talks in an effort to boost its popularity, making a deal more difficult to envisage.

Further challenges face the sector. For one, the government has long harboured plans to scale back energy subsidies, and introduced a hike in energy prices early in the year, in an effort to boost its precarious fiscal position. Further moves are likely to prove necessary over the coming years. While challenging from a political standpoint, such a move would be positive from an overall macroeconomic standpoint and would ease domestic demand for electricity, allowing Iran to continue to increase electricity exports to neighbouring countries. In any case, we expect the government to continue investing heavily in capacity expansion over the coming years, creating opportunities across the sector.

Key Trends And Developments

■ The government has announced a further 20% increase in electricity prices, to be implemented in early 2015, on top of the 25% increase that was announced last year. The move is a response to a quicklyworsening budget position (the result of the fall in oil prices), though remains in line with Tehran's broader goal of reducing its energy subsidy bill. The energy ministry announced plans to build 35 new dispersed power stations in the next calendar year (which begins in March 2015). The plants will be strategically located across the country's electricity grid in order to overcome bottlenecks in power supply and prevent shortages and outages. The ministry has allocated USD250mn for the construction of the power stations.

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■ Mohammad Ja'fari, an official with the energy ministry, has announced ambitious targets for Iranian electricity exports. He claims that Iran has the capacity to export more than USD20bn worth of electricity and power equipment to neighbouring countries, a figure which is approximately equal to the value of Iranian oil exports. In recent months Iran has announced several deals with its neighbours for the export of electricity, including Turkey, Pakistan and Armenia.

■ During the period 2015-2024, Iran's overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 3.3%, to 295.1TWh. Driving this growth in the near term is the output from the country's first nuclear power facility, which was connected to the national grid in early 2013, and which became fully operational in late 2013.

■ Iran's 2014 real GDP is estimated by BMI to have grown by 1.2%, following an estimated contraction of 1.9% in 2013. We forecast growth to recover to an average of around 3.5% between 2014 and 2024. The population is expected to rise from an estimated 78.5mn in 2014 to 87.3mn by 2024, while net power consumption looks set to see far greater gains, increasing from an estimated 189.9TWh in 2014 to 254.1TWh in 2024. Over 2015-2024, electricity demand is forecast at to grow at an average annual rate of around 3%.

■ Owing partly to the projected rise in net generation, growth of which falls below underlying demand trend, Iran's power supply surplus is likely to increase slightly over the medium term, although the country is keen to develop its power export capability. A decline in the percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses from an estimated 15% in 2014 to 13.4% by end-2024 will further support the widening of the surplus. The forecast net export capability in 2024 is put at around 7TWh.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت انرژی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2015