صنعت محصولات الکترونیکی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: Homegrown devices have greater potential than international products in Iran, owing to international sanctions that prevent many companies from selling products in the country. We believe the outlook for 2015 will continue to reflect these restrictions although the growing availability of 3G will boost demand for smartphones. Iran's large population offers considerable growth potential and opportunities for companies looking to expand. However, the government's continued interference with internet services and content and its attempt to establish a 'national internet' will limit appetite for computers and broadband services, although many Iranians may well remain unaware of the differences.

Headline Expenditure Projections

■ Computer sales: USD5.1bn in 2014 to USD7.1bn by 2019; low PC penetration means significant potential, but the high cost of devices remains a barrier to rapid growth.

■ AV and gaming device sales: USD2.4bn in 2014 to USD3.2bn in 2019; digital broadcasting offers opportunities, but demand is likely to be weakest in this segment.

■ Handset sales: USD2.0bn in 2014 to USD2.7bn in 2019; increased competition in the 3G market with multiple operators should drive smartphones demand in the country but the low-cost segment is likely to be the main driver.

Key Trends And Developments

The 3G market will develop, as MTN Irancell launched services in August 2014, followed by the country's first 4G network in December. We also expect market leader MCI to launch during 2015, as well as potential new LTE licences being granted by the regulator.

Despite the easing of sanctions on communications devices, the tightening of sanctions on Iran's financial sector in early 2013 has made it more challenging for vendors to source internationally branded products directly from East Asia. Many have resorted to importing products via the Middle East and Turkey, with higher customs tariffs.

In the AV market replacement TV set purchases will be driven by the roll out of digital TV broadcasting.

Iran launched its first digital TV channel in early 2012 after developments gathered pace in 2011. Larger screen sizes and increased features will encourage consumers to upgrade their existing sets as products become more readily available following the easing of sanctions. The switch to digital TV will provide short-term impetus to market growth.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت محصولات الکترونیکی در ایران- سه ماهه سوم 2015