کد خبر: ۳۳۴۸
تاریخ انتشار: ۰۴ شهريور ۱۳۹۵ - ۰۹:۰۳
بیزینس مانیتور

صنعت ارتباطات از راه دور در ایران- سه ماهه دوم 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: Iran's telecoms market is an underperformer in the Middle East as a result of political and economic risks, exacerbated by currency depreciation, which is limiting access to the latest devices. Furthermore, the Iranian government is keen to restrict access to international internet content, creating a national internet network that will bypass international gateways and cut off large swathes of global content. For this, the government began talks with the Chinese government in early 2014. That said, over the medium term there is catch-up potential in Iran, and its large and young population should make it one of the most attractive telecoms markets in the Middle East.

 صنعت ارتباطات از راه دور در ایران-

Key Data

■ We estimate that fixed-line connections increased by 3.0% in 2014, and we expect growth to slow down in the forecast period because of fixed-mobile substitution and a greater focus on mobile services from fixed incumbent TCI.

■ We estimate that the country ended 2014 with over 111mn subscribers, boosted by MTN's performance in the latter part of the year after it launched 3G services.

■ We estimate there were around 9.9mn 3G subscriptions at the end of 2014 and forecast a figure of 18.9mn at the end of 2015, and we expect the rapid growth to continue over the short term as more operators launch advanced services.

Key Trends And Developments

MTN Irancell joined Rightel in offering 3G services in the country, launching its network in August 2014.

The operator also launched the country's 1st 4G network in December 2014, looking to take a lead in the mobile data market. Incumbent MCI has yet to offer either technologies, despite its plans to do so, and may be impeded by government's intervention which sees advanced technologies as inciting rebellion and against Islamic values.

MTN Irancell's operating results for the 2013 gave some insight to smartphone market in Iran. MTN reported a total of 10.3mn smartphone users, which equates to almost 25% of its subscription base.

Considering the lack of 3G service availability in Iran, along with import restrictions on electronics and reduced purchasing power due to currency depreciation, this is an impressive rate of adoption. Nonetheless the smartphone opportunity remains large in Iran due to its late-developer status. BMI believes vendors will be able to capitalise on retail opportunities in the smartphone market as the economic environment becomes more supportive. Smartphone adoption will also prove a boost for data revenue growth as users become more accustomed to wireless data usage.

Iran and China will partner to control content online and build a 'clean' internet in Iran, according to news in January 2014. The restrictions will apply to the National Information Network (NIN). The news had little impact on our forecasts for broadband subscriptions as the NIN is already factored into the estimates for market expansion. BMI notes that China's restricted internet access and blocking of content deemed unsuitable has not stopped consumers in that country getting online and developing a number of homegrown social networking services and platforms. Although we do not expect Iran to follow this path as its population is much smaller.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت ارتباطات از راه دور در ایران- سه ماهه دوم 2015