صنعت محصولات الکترونیکی در ایران - سه ماهه اول 2015

BMI Industry View

BMI View: Homegrown devices have greater potential than international products in Iran, owing to international sanctions that prevent many companies from selling products in the country. We believe the outlook for 2015 will continue to reflect these restrictions although the growing availability of 3G will boost demand for smartphones. Iran's large population offers considerable growth potential and opportunities for companies looking to expand. However, the government's continued interference with internet services and content and its attempt to establish a 'national internet' will limit appetite for computers and broadband services, although many Iranians may well remain unaware of the differences.

Headline Expenditure Projections

■ Computer sales: USD5.1bn in 2014 to USD6.7bn by 2018; low PC penetration means significant potential, but the high cost of devices remains a barrier to rapid growth.

■ AV and gaming device sales: USD2.4bn in 2014 to USD3.0bn in 2018; digital broadcasting offers opportunities, but demand is likely to be weakest in this segment.

■ Handset sales: USD2.0bn in 2014 to USD2.6bn in 2018; the slow development of 3G services by telecoms operators will limit the potential for smartphones, but increased competition in the 3G market poses upside risks in the long term.

Key Trends And Developments

The 3G market continues to be held back, with the two largest operators having a combined market share of 99%, and they continued to be restricted to EDGE and GPRS services in 2014; however, we expect the smartphone market to begin to gain significant growth momentum from 2015.

Despite the easing of sanctions on communications devices, the tightening of sanctions on Iran's financial sector in early 2013 has made it more challenging for vendors to source internationally branded products directly from East Asia. Many have resorted to importing products via the Middle East and Turkey, with higher customs tariffs.

In the AV market replacement TV set purchases will be driven by the roll out of digital TV broadcasting.

Iran launched its first digital TV channel in early 2012 after developments gathered pace in 2011. Larger screen sizes and increased features will encourage consumers to upgrade their existing sets as products become more readily available following the easing of sanctions. The switch to digital TV will provide short-term impetus to market growth.

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت محصولات الکترونیکی در ایران - سه ماهه اول 2015