صنعت داروسازی و بهداشت در ایران-سه ماهه چهارم2011

BMI View: We see room for moderate growth in Iran's pharmaceuticals industry over the medium term and forecast the market growing at a compound annual rate of 6.88% (in US dollar terms) through to 2015. We also expect the country to become more reliant on pharmaceutical imports over the next three years. Given our expectation that domestic firms' share of the pharmaceutical market will decline over the medium term, we see opportunities for foreign firms to export higher volumes of pharmaceutical products into Iran. We caution, however, that Iran imposes ad valorem tariffs of over 60% on imported medicines, which will significantly raise the final cost to consumers. Nonetheless, we still prefer the export strategy over the foreign direct investment option, as Iran is notorious for ignoring international intellectual property right laws. In addition, we caution that further depreciation of the rial (which is our core view at the moment) would likely cut into profits denominated in hard currency.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: IRR31,483bn (US$3.08bn) in 2010 to IRR36,227bn (US$3.21bn) in 2011; +15.1% in local currency terms and +4.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards due to new data available. Pharmaceuticals: IRR31,483bn (US$3.08bn) in 2010 to IRR36,227bn (US$3.21bn) in 2011; +15.1% in local currency terms and +4.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards due to new data available.

Healthcare: IRR292,962bn (US$28.63bn) in 2010 to IRR338,041bn (US$30.00bn) in 2011; +15.4% in local currency terms and +4.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast down marginally from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.

Medical devices: IRR8,288bn (US$810mn) in 2010 to IRR11,227bn (US$996mn) in 2011; +35.5% in local currency terms and +23.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast down marginally
from Q311 due to macroeconomic factors.

Business Environment Rating: In BMI’s Middle East and Africa (MEA) Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q411, Iran remains ranked 14th of the 19 markets surveyed, despite its score recovering from 42.6 out of a maximum 100 in Q3 to 44.1. Iran’s Risks profile continues to be more challenging than its potential Rewards, which increased in terms of Industry Rewards from 43 to 47, bringing the overall score on this side of our indicators up to 49. While Iran’s large population continues to provide a theoretical advantage, its pricing and reimbursement regimes remain less than ideal.

Key Trends & Developments

In July 2011, Iranian Ambassador to Ghana Mohammad Soleymani reiterated the country’s commitment to assisting the African nation’s Ministry of Health with improvements to its healthcare delivery system. "Iran will continue to offer scholarships to Ghanaians through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration to study medicine and other health professions in our country”, Soleymani said during a visit with Ghana’s Minister of Health, Joseph Yieleh Chireh.

Ali Sobhanian, head of Iran's Medicine Importers Association has said that he believes Iran's total pharmaceutical market to be worth over US$3.2bn. BMI's previous estimates of Iran's total market size were much lower. In an effort to reconcile these differences, we have re-evaluated some of our assumptions regarding the Arabic Republic's pharmaceutical import reliance and average pharmaceutical mark-ups, which has resulted in a significant increase in historic market size.

BMI Economic View: Iran's economy will experience marginal growth rates going forward, boosted primarily by high oil prices. However, owing to our expectation that oil export volumes and prices will decline in the coming years, we believe Tehran will need to work quickly in order to keep a degree of growth momentum. We have pencilled in real GDP growth rates of 1.2% and 2.4% in FY2011/12 and FY2012/13 respectively.

BMI Political View: The uptick in crude oil prices since the start of 2011 will benefit Iran's economy substantially through investment-focused fiscal stimulus, but we expect the government's revenues to slow down in FY2012/2013 and FY2013/2014, boding ill for the sustainability of government-driven economic activity over the medium term. The removal of centrist and opposition politicians from Iran's political scene signifies a consolidation of conservative political power, which could result in another wave of popular demonstrations from those who oppose the current regime.