گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور-صنعت انرژی درایران-سه ماهه اول2011

We forecast that Iran will account for 14.79% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2015, with a broadly balanced market if nuclear generation plans proceed uninterrupted. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,518TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 24.2% between 2010 and the end of the period.

MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,378TWh, implying 20.8% growth in 2010-2015 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 90.8% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 192TWh, or 16.85% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 14.45% of regional thermal generation.

Gas will have been the dominant fuel in Iran in 2010, accounting for an estimated 57.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 40.4% and hydro with a 0.8% share of PED. Nuclear power should make its first contribution during 2011. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,117mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 20.8% growth over the period since 2010. Iran’s estimated 2010 market share of 22.38% is set to ease to 21.21% by 2015. Iran’s nuclear demand is forecast to reach 10TWh by 2015, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 38.46%.

Iran holds eighth place above Algeria and Kuwait in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings. This is largely a reflection of its market size. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country’s nuclear energy programme. We see little scope for a recovery from this quarter’s 39-point score.

BMI now forecasts that Iran’s real GDP growth will average 2.00% a year between 2010 and 2015, with 2011 growth assumed to be 1.30%. The population is expected to expand from 73.9mn to 78.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 31% and 5% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 161TWh in 2010 to 179TWh by 2015, providing a broadly balanced market, assuming 2.2% average annual growth in electricity generation. The success of the nuclear programme will have a major influence on generation growth.

Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast a 25.5% increase in Iranian electricity generation, near the bottom of
the MEA range. This equates to 11.9% in 2015-2020, down from 12.2% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to decrease from 14.4% in 2010-2015 to 12.6%, representing 28.8% for the entire forecast period. From 2011, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 19% between 2010 and 2020. Details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.