کد خبر: ۱۵۰۴
تاریخ انتشار: ۰۸ شهريور ۱۳۹۴ - ۲۰:۰۲

گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور- صنعت انرژی در ایران- سه ماهه اول 2010

IRAN Power Report Q1 2010- INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2014

We forecast that Iran will account for 16.19% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power

generation by 2014. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2009 is 1,264 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). We forecast an increase in regional generation to 1,659TWh by 2014, a rise of 31.3% between 2009 and 2014.

Regional thermal power generation in 2009 is estimated by BMI at 1,158TWh, accounting for 96.5% of the total electricity supplied in the MEA. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,523TWh, implying 31.5% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 97.6% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Iran’s thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 199TWh, or 17.20% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 15.40% of regional thermal generation. Gas was the dominant fuel for Iran in 2008, accounting for 55.1% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 43.3% and hydro with a 0.9% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 929.8mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 25.1% growth over the period since 2009. Iran’s estimated 2009 market share of 25.83% is set to reach 25.97% by 2014. Iran’s nuclear demand is forecast to reach 10TWh by 2014, with its share of the MEA nuclear market rising to 42.55%. Iran is still fourth in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating. This reflects its market size and relatively high proportion of renewables (hydro-power) use. The power sector is not competitive, with no appreciable progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment is unattractive and the risk outlook is suffering thanks to the controversy over the country’s nuclear energy programme. We see scope for a reduced score and a drop down the rankings during the next few quarters.

BMI forecasts that Iran’s real GDP growth will averaging 3.46% a year between 2010 and 2014, with 2008 growth estimated at 1.60%. The population is expected to expand from 74.2mn to 78.5mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 84% and 17%, respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 176TWh in 2009 to 218TWh by 2014, providing export potential rising from an estimated 35TWh in 2009 to 51TWh in 2014, assuming 4.5% annual growth in electricity generation. Losses during power transmission and distribution mean the actual level of power exports is well below the theoretical surplus, but is set to rise.

Between 2009 and 2019 we forecast a 53.8% increase in Iranian electricity generation, near the middle of the MEA range. This equates to 21.1% in 2014-2019, down from 27.0% in 2009-2014. PED growth is will fall from 25.8% in 2009-2014 to 18.4%, representing 49.0% for the entire forecast period. From 2010, the availability of nuclear power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 38.1% between 2009 and 2019. Details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report


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