گزارش تحلیلی بیزینس مانیتور صنعت خودرو در ایران-سه ماهه اول 2010

Executive Summary

The Iranian automotive industry has not escaped the effects of the global economic crisis and will struggle to recover from the slump in demand. Consumer demand is expected to remain constrained, given that financing is still difficult to come by. While crude prices rebounded somewhat in the latter part of 2009, they still remain far below the records scaled during the commodities boom and will impact oil revenues.

Iran Khodro Company (IKCO), which accounts for about 48% of the nation’s automotive output, produced 353,000 passenger cars in the seven-month period ended October 2009. According to IKCO’s vice president of production affairs, Javad Dehnadi, output of the Peugeot 405 was the highest, with 90,067 units made during the period. IKCO also makes various versions of the Samand model and other Peugeot models. The latest output figures show a 12% rise in production from the year-ago period, Dehnadi said.

BMI believes growth for all carmakers will depend heavily on exports and producing overseas. The rise of Saipa, whose sales increased by 18% year-on-year (y-o-y) to become the country's largest carmaker in the Iranian year ended March 31 2009, has been fuelled largely by its expansion into new export markets. Saipa and IKCO, the country’s two largest automakers, have been seeking export opportunities both for CBUs and CKD kits supplied to assembly lines.

IKCO has been making headway in terms of its foreign production. The company’s CEO said in October 2009 that an agreement had been signed between IKCO and Peugeot to manufacture the Peugeot 207i car at IKCO facilities outside Iran. Under the agreement, IKCO will be able to export the model to 63 countries. The agreement came on the heels of a similar agreement reached between the carmakers a month earlier. In September 2009, IKCO and Peugeot signed a deal which gave IKCO the right to produce the Peugeot 206, 207 and Pars models outside Iran.

The focus on foreign markets has been paying off. Exports have been rising, but from a low base, as shown by the latest figures from IKCO. According to IKCO’s deputy head for export and international affairs, the carmaker’s exports grew in the March-October 2009 period to more than 16,000 cars, as reported by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). By comparison, it exported 8,800 vehicles in the same period of 2008. According to the news agency, IKCO exported cars to 40 countries in the seven-month period and plans to safeguard markets and after-sales services in 40 countries.

On the commercial vehicle front, a US$1bn scrappage scheme should help revive demand for heavy vehicles in Iran. The government is aiming to replace 12,813 vehicles with new ones by the end of the current Iranian calendar year, which ends on March 21 2010. Some 8,813 trucks, 1,500 buses and 2,500 minibuses will be replaced as government representatives for the expansion of the public transportation fleet and energy saving received the central bank's confirmation of a US$1bn credit plan. In addition, the oil ministry will also allocate about US$230mn for renewing the vehicle fleet in Iran from its internal budget.

Trade sanctions remain a threat to the industry. The US has been taking a tough approach to Iran, which has refused to halt its pursuit of a nuclear programme. In November 2009, President Barack Obama said he was talking with allies about fresh sanctions against the country, as reported by the Associated Press and Time.com. Obama did not disclose details about what potential new measures were being discussed, the report said, adding that the US leader appeared to hold out the option of diplomacy in a bid to get Iran to the negotiating table. Iran claims it is not using its nuclear work for weaponry purposes, but the standoff still represents a threat to the business environment.